Step 3 · Discover
Public chapterOpportunity assessment
Position
SwiftBite’s opportunity remains conditional: the supplied record contains no named launch city, verified restaurant census, or merchant commitments. Existing merchant relationships support direct prospecting but do not establish transferable delivery demand. Routing contracts and courier screening remain blocked until the founder verifies the addressable merchant base, customer migration evidence, and local delivery economics.
Localized opportunity profile
Market boundary and current finding
The census covers restaurant pickup addresses inside the launch boundary, not the entire metropolitan area. The founder must anchor the radius to a named downtown dispatch point and retain the resulting map with the restaurant register.
| Market field | Recorded position | Acceptance basis |
|---|---|---|
| City | Not supplied | Named municipality and applicable jurisdiction |
| Municipal population | Approximately 150,000 | Grounding file; replace with latest official population release |
| Launch footprint | 4-mile radius, downtown and two adjacent neighbourhoods | Grounding file; confirm addresses against mapped boundary |
| Priority merchant revenue | $25,000–$60,000 monthly | Owner attestation, then consented statement review |
| Exact eligible restaurant count | Unverified | Address-level census with exclusions resolved |
| Required willing partners | At least 50 | Signed, conditional participation agreements |
| Target merchant commission | Capped at 12% | No mandatory surcharge that circumvents the cap |
Restaurant register
The founder owns an Airtable register assembled from municipal food-premises records, public health inspection listings, business licences, and restaurant websites. Google Maps supplies discovery leads, not final eligibility evidence. QGIS determines boundary inclusion; Google Sheets holds the reconciled demand model.
Each record must contain trading name, legal operator, pickup address, owner contact, operating status, independent ownership confirmation, monthly revenue band, current delivery channels, opening hours, cuisine, current delivery order volume, delivery-ready menu, and evidence date. Separate pickup locations remain separate supply records; an owner-level field prevents overstating independent buying decisions.
Exclude chains, permanently closed premises, addresses outside the boundary, and vendors unable to fulfil delivery orders during proposed dispatch hours. Retain excluded records with reasons rather than deleting them.
| Census output | Reporting rule |
|---|---|
| Gross vendor count | Unique licensed food-vendor addresses within boundary |
| Eligible merchant count | Open, independent, delivery-capable locations |
| Priority prospect count | Eligible locations meeting the revenue profile |
| Willing partner count | Signed agreements, not verbal interest |
| Launch-ready count | Signed terms, approved menu, fulfilment test, migration commitment |
Merchant demand ledger
The founder interviews owners using their recent channel statements, not citywide delivery averages. Each owner identifies customers reachable through consented email, direct-order channels, receipt inserts, or restaurant-owned social accounts. Aggregator customer data is excluded unless reuse is expressly permitted.
Conditional agreements specify the advertised commission cap, published consumer delivery fee, no exclusivity, no onboarding payment before launch acceptance, and merchant approval of migration materials. Statements must distinguish existing delivery demand from genuinely transferable demand.
| Funnel assumption | Planning requirement | Evidence needed |
|---|---|---|
| Qualified prospect pool | 150 locations (estimate) | Completed eligibility register |
| Prospect-to-partner conversion | 33.3% (estimate) | Signed partners divided by qualified prospects |
| Partner base | 50 merchants | Grounding target |
| Average volume per partner | 6 orders/day (estimate) | Required share of the operating target |
| Aggregate launch-city volume | 300 orders/day by month 12 | Grounding target |
No prospect-pool assumption substitutes for the completed census. If the verified pool is smaller, the founder must demonstrate stronger conversion or reject the boundary as commercially insufficient.
A merchant-assisted trial uses existing lawful fulfilment arrangements and separately tagged restaurant links. Record completed paid orders, repeat orders, merchant source, delivery address, basket value, and acquisition expense. Survey intent and free promotional orders do not count as transferred demand.
The numbers
The following is a provisional, rounded cash-contribution model; taxes and tips are excluded from revenue. Payment processing assumes SwiftBite processes the basket and delivery fee.
| Item | Figure | Basis |
|---|---|---|
| Average food basket | $30.00 (estimate) | Await merchant statements |
| Merchant commission revenue | $3.60/order (estimate) | 12% of assumed basket |
| Consumer delivery fee | $3.99/order | Grounding file |
| Total platform revenue | $7.59/order (estimate) | Commission plus delivery fee |
| Published courier base payout | $5.00/delivery (estimate) | Subject to wage-floor validation and top-ups |
| Payment processing | $1.29/order (estimate) | Assumed 2.9% plus $0.30 on $33.99 |
| Variable software charge | $0.25/order (estimate) | Await white-label quotation |
| Refund/support reserve | $0.25/order (estimate) | Provisional variable reserve |
| Contribution | $0.80/order (estimate) | Rounded revenue less listed variable costs |
| Monthly city cash overhead | $9,000 (estimate) | Includes $4,800 founder draw; balance unquoted |
| Cash break-even volume | 11,250 orders/month; 375/day (estimate) | Contribution model; 30-day month (estimate) |
| Month-12 cash deficit | $1,800/month (estimate) | Target volume against assumed overhead |
| Capital after personal runway reserve | $17,800 (estimate) | $85,000 less 14 months at $4,800 |
| Month-18 volume requirement | 7.5 daily orders/merchant (estimate) | Break-even volume across 50 merchants |
Decisions and trade-offs
| Decision | SwiftBite position |
|---|---|
| Demand versus geographic expansion | Validate the existing boundary before adding distance and delivery cost. |
| Courier compensation versus margin | Publish base pay and automatic time-based top-ups; never use tips to satisfy the wage floor. |
| Software procurement | Seek cancellable white-label terms; reject custom-build commitments. |
| Cash versus growth | Secure additional runway or reduce verified overhead before committing to the break-even horizon. |
| Merchant savings versus subsidy | Do not fund discounts by breaching the commission cap or concealing consumer charges. |
Do this next
| Action | By when | What proves it worked |
|---|---|---|
| Founder names city and maps boundary | Before outreach | Saved map and jurisdiction record |
| Founder reconciles vendor census | Before market-size approval | Source-linked register with exclusions |
| Founder secures participation agreements | Before software deposit | Required partner threshold met |
| Founder runs tagged migration trial | Before courier screening | Paid-order ledger and measured acquisition cost |
| Local counsel reviews courier classification; founder validates compensation | Before dispatch | Written review and wage-compliant payout model |
| Founder replaces model assumptions with quotes | Before launch approval | Positive contribution under measured delivery times |
Risks in your situation
Restaurant closures can shrink both supply and repeat demand. The founder checks licence changes, inspection status, and merchant confirmation monthly, marking temporary closures separately from permanent exits.
| Risk trigger | Required response |
|---|---|
| Eligible supply falls 5% over a rolling quarter (estimate) | Recount prospects and refresh commitments |
| Measured contribution reaches zero or below | Pause expansion; revise dispatch density and costs |
| Courier top-ups exceed model allowance | Reprice costs, not the merchant cap |
| Migration trial misses required volume | Withhold launch approval; do not extrapolate survey enthusiasm |
Evidence gate
- ☐ Named city, dispatch point, and boundary are recorded.
- ☐ Exact eligible count is reconciled to address-level evidence.
- ☐ Required merchant commitments include concrete migration actions.
- ☐ Paid-order evidence supports the demand forecast.
- ☐ Courier terms satisfy local classification and wage requirements.
- ☐ Quoted costs support positive contribution from launch.
- ☐ Cash coverage reaches the planned city break-even date.